Primera Division predictor

Week 14 - Derby hangover

December 16, 2011
By Eduardo Alvarez
(Archive)

Are you, dear reader, wondering how the aftermath of the last super mega derby felt in a Madridista's skin? I'll be succinct. Lack of appetite. Alcohol in excess. Endless remorse about poorly kept pre-match superstitions. Constant rhetorical questions about the ability of specific Real Madrid players to rise to the occasion - 'rhetorical' as in 'I already know the effing answer'. Troubled sleep. Recurring fights with girlfriend, who dared to suggest me to switch teams, a comment that can hardly been forgiven, neither forgotten.

Perhaps the only person feeling more sorry for himself is big-game flop Cristiano Ronaldo
GettyImagesPerhaps the only person feeling more sorry for himself is big-game flop Cristiano Ronaldo

But the worst? The painful realisation that, for as long as Josep Guardiola occupies that Azulgrana bench, Real Madrid's sporting achievements will be rare and few.

Let's start. Remember, it's '1' for a home win, 'X' for a draw and '2' for an away win.

1. Barcelona (1st) - Rayo Vallecano (16th): 1.

After their convincing victory in the super mega derby, Barcelona have only Rayo between them and another shot at silverware in Japan, at the Club World Cup. Judging by Rayo's run of form - lost their last three -, and Barcelona's dominant home performance - 35 goals scored, none against -, a '1' sounds indisputable. Expect an amazing match from the suddenly in shape Alexis Sanchez.

Note 1: Of course I know this match has already been played, but you need to understand that last week this depressed writer was just an Atletico-collapse away from a humiliating zilch/10. My team just lost a derby. I need all the right predictions I can get. So there.

Note 2: honestly devastated by David Villa's shinbone injury in Japan. His goals took Spain to the final of Euro 2008 and World Cup 2010. Even if he wasn't at his best this season, heart-breaking stuff.

2. Mallorca (11th) - Getafe (14th): 1.

Under boss Joaquin Caparros, Mallorca have become a solid team faster than expected. That is a lot to say, given their usual budget limitations and this season's total lack of real offensive threats. On the opposite corner, Getafe save their best for their home matches, while they look like a disjointed bunch of recently acquainted group of former players when they travel. Mallorca's shortcomings upfront could make an 'X' a reasonable option, but Getafe's porous back four shouldn't be able to keep a clean sheet, even at Son Moix. '1' it is.

3. Sporting de Gijon (18th) - Espanyol (8th): 1.

If you're looking for an underrated manager to coach your team, meet Mauricio Pochettino. Since he took over the reins at Cornella two years ago, Espanyol have avoided all kind of dangers, despite selling their best players every summer AND winter. This season he even managed to lead his side to victory away from home twice, a very rare feat last year.

Both teams own players who are steadily recovering from frustrating spells in their respective careers. Espanyol's Sergio Garcia finally resembles the incisive forward from 2008, while Sporting's Nacho Novo has recovered the scoring touch that had deserted him since he left Glasgow. Should be a fun match to watch, with a slight advantage for the home side, desperate for points.

4. Athletic de Bilbao (9th) - Zaragoza (20th): 1.

When your goalie is your best player and you lead the tournament in goals suffered, something's horribly wrong with your team. Apparently, Zaragoza's boss Javier Aguirre has run out of tricks. Of course Athletic come from a demanding away match against Paris Saint Germain, but if they can't win this one, even Marcelo Bielsa should ask for his own head on a silver tray.

5. Sevilla (5th) - Real Madrid (2nd): X.

And here comes the upset of the weekend. If you, dear Madridista, believe that a paltry Copa del Rey win against Ponferradina would cure Real Madrid's severe hangover after their derby defeat, you're wrong. The anticlimactic impact of the setback against their arch-rivals will have bigger consequences than the mere loss of three points for the Merengues. Judging by their hardly convincing public statements, self-confidence, assertiveness and swagger have temporarily deserted Jose Mourinho's side, and it's probably a good thing for the squad that the Christmas break is almost here.

The Sanchez Pizjuan, usually a tough stadium for the Madridistas, is currently hosted by a squad with ups and down, but with the second best defence in La Liga. Even though sales tickets have been slower than usual, and that the atmosphere between both teams is more relaxed than in previous years - remember Mou's list of 13 refereeing mistakes, or Gregorio Manzano's dismissal after Real Madrid won 6-2 last season? - do expect a hard fought match in which defences will prevail.

6. Atletico de Madrid (10th) - Betis (13th): 2.

Last weekend, the management of the hosts decided to let Gregorio Manzano coach the team for another three HOME matches before firing him. Let me elaborate on this: they are positive that they needed to let him go, but somehow decided to pull the trigger only after Christmas. This decision would only make sense if their objective was to provoke riots at the Vicente Calderon, which in light of the last couple of decades of Gil family's management could actually be the case.

The attack-minded but unlucky Betis finally broke their winless streak with an extra-time double by Ruben Castro last weekend. Good karma. They'll find the perfect atmosphere to fish another three points, at the Manzanares riverside.

David Villa injury Barcelona
GettyImagesEduardo has cast aside club concerns to wish a speedy recovery in the national interest for David Villa

7. Granada (15th) - Levante (4th): X.

Listen to Getafe's manager Luis Garcia describing Granada after their tedious contest last week: 'They play so close to their own goal that they barely leave their half of the pitch'. Add that to Levante in their second consecutive match away from home after a quite disappointing Copa del Rey defeat at the hands of Deportivo, and both teams should gladly settle for a draw that will keep them among the overachievers side of the football world.

8. Osasuna (7th) - Villarreal (17th): 1.

Can Villarreal get any lower? Remember that not only they sit as close to the relegation zone as it is mathematically possible, but also they just drew a midweek Copa del Rey tie against a team two divisions their inferior.

Well, they indeed can. On Sunday, they will pay a visit to the Reyno de Navarra, where Osasuna haven't lost a match yet this season. The Rojillos have been undefeated since they visited the Bernabeu, and everything points at an excessively tall order for this season's Villarreal and their troubled boss, Juan Carlos Garrido.

9. Racing de Santander (19th) - Real Sociedad (12th): 2.

Believe it or not, the triumvirate works. Since the three-headed coach took over from Hector Cuper, Racing have won twice and draw once, an unprecedentedly successful streak since the season started. Even Swedish international Kennedy Bakircioglü came back from injury, bringing his decent crossing to a side in desperate need of quality passing.

But the champagne effect of most coaching changes quickly disappears when there's not much to work with, as it is Racing's case. And Real Sociedad arrive fired up after four positive results and with winger Xabi Prieto in his best shape of the season. Love a '2' in this one.

10. Valencia (3rd) - Málaga (6th): 1.

Beware of high expectations, my father used to say. The Christmas break is upon us, and despite their good position in the standings, these two teams can't help feeling as though they under delivered. The hyped Valencia crashed out of the Champions League and then gave away a match to struggling Betis, while Malaga, strongly reinforced during the summer, have up to now played well below their level during the second half of last season.

At least the Valencianistas finally managed to solve their new stadium's financing puzzle. The club's management just reached an agreement with a major Spanish financial institution, and now expect to finish the construction works in 2014. Time to celebrate and recover some swagger with three points against Malaga, an average, detached visitor this season.

Use this easy 'Copy and Paste' summary to write your own Quiniela and share it with us in the 'Comments' section. If you get 10 correct results, your name will be mentioned in the following Quiniela column!

1. Barcelona (1st) - Rayo Vallecano (16th): 1.
2. Mallorca (11th) - Getafe (14th): 1.
3. Sporting de Gijón (18th) - Espanyol (8th): 1.
4. Athletic de Bilbao (9th) - Zaragoza (20th): 1.
5. Sevilla (5th) - Real Madrid (2nd): X.
6. Atletico de Madrid (10th) - Betis (13th): 2.
7. Granada (15th) - Levante (4th): X.
8. Osasuna (7th) - Villarreal (17th): 1.
9. Racing de Santander (19th) - Real Sociedad (12th): 2.
10. Valencia (3rd) - Málaga (6th): 1.

Last week: 1/10 (10%. Thanks, Atleti)
Season: 66/130 (50%)