By Tuesday evening we'll know the 12 of the 16 nations which will participate at Euro 2012. Poland and Ukraine will be there as hosts of the tournament, while England, Germany, Italy, Netherlands and Spain can already book their flights.
The eight group winners qualify automatically along with the best runner-up. As three groups only have five teams, the groups with six teams will have the record of the team finishing bottom of the group ignored to calculate the best runner-up.
We take a group-by-group look at who can still qualify, and how they can get to the finals. Head to head record comes before goal difference in this qualifying campaign.
Group A
Remaining fixtures
Tuesday: Germany v Belgium, Kazakhstan v Austria, Turkey v Azerbaijan
• Group table, results and scorers
Qualified: Germany
Able to qualify for play-offs: Belgium, Turkey
With Turkey at home to Azerbaijan the likelihood is Belgium will have to win against Germany at the Esprit Arena, Dusseldorf.
And if Belgium lose to Germany, Turkey would need just a point having the better head to head. One twist, Turkey actually lost away in Azerbaijan almost a year to the day and a repeat would give Belgium second.
Verdict: Turkey losing at home to Azerbaijan in a crucial qualifier is unthinkable, and Belgium getting anything in Germany improbable.
Group B
Remaining fixtures
Tuesday: Ireland v Armenia, Macedonia v Slovakia, Russia v Andorra
• Group table, results and scorers
Able to qualify: Russia, Ireland, Armenia
Russia are almost certain to qualify for the finals with a home game against Andorra, who have lost every single game and scored just one goal, on Tuesday. Russia need only a point to secure top spot having a better head to head record with Ireland.
Ireland v Armenia: This is a shootout to the play-offs, with Ireland holding a one-point advantage going into the game at the Aviva Stadium. Armenia, the top scorers in the group, must win to climb above Ireland otherwise they will be the nearly men. Armenia cannot top the group due to their head to head with Russia. Ireland can only do so if Russia lose.
Verdict: Russia will win to top the group. Ireland must beware an unknown quantity in outstanding form. Armenia have scored 11 goals in their last three qualifiers, but Ireland should have it in them to get the point they need.
Group C
Remaining fixtures
Tuesday: Italy v Northern Ireland, Slovenia v Serbia
• Group table, results and scorers
Qualified: Italy
Able to qualify for play-offs: Serbia, Estonia
This could not be more simple. Estonia, who have finished their campaign, took four points from their games against Serbia. That means Serbia must win in Slovenia otherwise Estonia will make the play-offs
Verdict: Serbia may trip at the final hurdle, handing Estonia an unlikely play-off spot. Estonia must rue losing in Faroe Islands in June.
Group D
Remaining fixtures
Tuesday: Albania v Romania, France v Bosnia-Herzegovina
• Group table, results and scorers
Able to qualify: France, Bosnia-Herzegovina
The two teams are separated by a single point and will meet in Paris on Tuesday. France, missing several key players due to injury, must avoid defeat and Bosnia have to win to qualify automatically and avoid the play-offs.
Verdict: Though France have lost many players ahead of this key week, they should be capable of taking the point on home soil they will need to finish top. They won 2-0 in Bosnia-Herzegovina in more troubled times. Bosnia-Herzegovina may face the play-offs again.
Group E
Remaining fixtures
Tuesday: Sweden v Netherlands, Hungary v Finland, Moldova v San Marino
• Group table, results and scorers
Qualified: Netherlands
Play-offs: Sweden
Though this group is done and dusted for positions - as Sweden better Hungary on head to head - the match at the Rasunda Stadion does have significance. If Sweden beat the Dutch they will be the best runner-up. Even a point may offer them that berth.
Verdict: Netherlands have been imperious throughout qualifying and despite their injury problems they should still go to Sweden and win for a perfect record.
Group F
Remaining fixtures
Tuesday: Georgia v Greece, Malta v Israel, Croatia v Latvia
• Group table, results and scorers
Able to qualify: Greece, Croatia
Greece's 2-0 win over Croatia was monumental for coach Fernando Santos, as now they need just a point in Georgia to make the finals on head to head. Croatia must win at home to Latvia and hope Greece lose. Greece drew 1-1 at home to Georgia a year ago.
Verdict: Georgia have only lost one home game, but Greece should get the point they need.
Group G
Remaining fixtures
Tuesday: Bulgaria v Wales, Switzerland v Montenegro
• Group table, results and scorers
Qualified: England
Qualified for play-offs: Montenegro
Group H
Remaining fixtures
Tuesday: Denmark v Portugal, Norway v Cyprus
• Group table, results and scorers
Able to qualify: Portugal, Denmark
Able to qualify for play-offs: Norway
It's Denmark v Portugal in the qualifying showdown, with both sides level on 16 points. Portugal hold the head to head lead so Denmark must win to top the group. However, the runner-up in the group stands a good chance of qualifying automatically as the best runner-up if Sweden lose to Netherlands.
Norway are mathematically in with a chance of the play-offs, but Portugal must lose in Denmark, Norway must win at home to Cyprus and there has to be a goal difference swing of nine goals. Norway trail Denmark on the head to head but are level with Portugal.
Verdict: It looks like being a titanic battle in Copenhagen, and maybe the Danes will just have enough on home soil to beat Portugal and climb top on the last day. Portugal conceding three goals to Iceland will give the Danes hope.
Group I
Remaining fixtures
Tuesday: Spain v Scotland, Lithuania v Czech Republic
• Group table, results and scorers
Qualified: Spain
Able to qualify for play-offs: Czech Republic, Scotland
Scotland's win over Liechtenstein puts them second by a point going into their trip to Spain. The Czechs have to travel to Lithuania. The Czechs have the better head to head record over Scotland, which means Scotland cannot afford to end up on the same points as them. If Scotland win, or if both teams draw, they will be in the play-offs. However, the Czechs are favourites for sure.
Verdict: It is difficult to see Scotland taking anything off Spain which means they must hope the Czechs are defeated at Lithuania.
Best runner-up
Russia play the bottom team in their group, and should finish top anyway, while one of Denmark and Portugal will also finish top. If Greece do not finish top they cannot be best runner-up.
So it will most likely be Denmark/Portugal or Sweden. If Sweden beat Netherlands they will definitely be the best runner-up. If they draw it may come down to goal difference with the loser of Denmark/Portugal. Denmark cannot lose and then be ahead of Sweden on goal difference. Portugal could lose but only have a goal difference buffer of two. Sweden have +8 once the San Marino scores are removed from their record.
Russia 17*
Denmark 16
Portugal 16
Greece 15
Sweden 15
France 14
Bosnia-Herigovina 13
Croatia 13
Norway 13
Estonia 13*
Ireland 12
Montenegro 12
Scotland 11
Armenia 11
Czech Republic 10
Serbia 9
Belgium 9*
Turkey 8
*Denotes no qualifying matches remaining for best-runner-up calculation
Based on the latest coefficients and tables - which of course will change by next week - the draw pots for the finals would be as follows. This also assumes the seeded nations win the qualifying play-offs.
Pot One: Poland, Ukraine, Spain, Netherlands
Pot Two: Germany, England, Italy, Croatia
Pot Three: Russia, Greece, Portugal, Sweden
Pot Four: France, Denmark, Czech Republic, Turkey
Sweden or Portugal/Denmark are most likely to qualify automatically as the best runner-up. This would make the pots for the play-off draw as follows:
Seeds: Sweden or Portugal/Denmark, Croatia, Czech Republic, Turkey
Unseeded: Ireland, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Montenegro, Estonia
• Follow me on Twitter: @dalejohnsonESPN
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER
