Primera Division predictor

Quiniela - Week 21 - Show me the money

January 28, 2011
By Eduardo Alvarez
(Archive)

When this season started, two close friends of mine suggested that we should jointly bet on the real Quiniela. Quick explanation: the 'real' Quiniela not only includes all ten Primera Division matches, but also five more from the Segunda. The biggest prize goes to the rare gambler who hits all fifteen results correctly, with diminishing rewards down to those who get ten correct results. The fifteenth match only counts if you get all the previous fourteen matches right, and gives the winner (s) an additional prize, out of a separate pool of cash.

What Eduardo didn't buy with his Quiniela winnings
GettyImagesWhat Eduardo didn't buy with his Quiniela winnings

We divided the work as follows: I took care of the Primera Division, using the exact same results I post for the ESPNsoccernet Quiniela; one of my friends volunteered to guess the outcome of the Segunda Division matches; and the third decided to select five matches to put an extra prediction. For instance, for Barcelona vs Real Madrid I would choose '1', but he'd add an extra 'X', increasing the cost of our bet, as well as our chances to get that specific result correct (okay, okay, Barcelona vs Real Madrid wasn't the best match to waste an 'X' on, but you get my point). Incidentally, this type of bet with five extra predictions (called 'doubles') costs us €16 per week.

After an almost spotless weekend, last Sunday evening we were sitting at an unprecedented 12/13 correct results. We had even guessed the 15th match correctly, to no avail given that Espanyol destroyed Getafe at the Coliseum, preventing us from a perfect 14/14 that would have put the 15th match in play.

In any case, we believed that loads of cash was coming our way: a simple Athletic win at home versus Levante on Monday would take us to 13 correct results, so it seems relevant to mention that prizes for the lucky 13 usually range from €800 to over €50,000. The size of the prize depends on how 'easy' (as in 'predictable') the Quiniela is: the easier, the more gamblers will get it right, and therefore there'll be more people to split the cash.

On Monday night, and while my friends and I texted each other non-stop, describing enticing but entirely inappropriate ways of using all the cash we were going to win, Athletic scored three and confirmed our 13 correct results. "How much will we make?" we kept asking each other over the phone...

The anticlimactic answer to our question came Tuesday morning: €10.87. You've read that correctly. There are no zeroes missing and that dot is in the right place. Ten (expletive) euros. After our best performance ever, we didn't even get our cash back. 10.87. 10.87. Like that of Ainett Stephens, that slim, tricky figure does not leave my mind, together with my mother's words of wisdom: "Your best bet is the one you never made."

Let's start. As usual, it's '1' for a home win, 'X' for a draw and '2' for an away win.

1. Levante (20th) - Getafe (10th): X.

Both teams at arguably their lowest point of the season: the home team have lost their last five games, while Getafe have lost every single official match played in 2011. The point difference between them, favouring Getafe, gets cancelled out by Levante's home advantage. Let's start with a draw.

2. Real Sociedad (11th) - Almeria (18th): X.

Phil's squad have the chance to exact revenge over Almeria, who eliminated them in the Copa del Rey. Argentinean striker Leonadro Ulloa has already scored four times against Real Sociedad this season, and seems genuinely in shape after adding another three to his tally in his last two La Liga matches.

Real Sociedad will miss injured forward Joseba Llorente, although that should hardly be an issue for the home side, who get their goals from attacking midfielders such as Xabi Prieto and Antoine Griezmann. In any case, Almeria haven't lost to the realistas yet this season, and I believe they'll maintain thier unbeaten run.

3. Mallorca (9th) - Sporting de Gijon (15th): 1.

Do you enjoy discounts and fire sales? Then pay a visit to Mallorca, in the process of selling Fernando Cavenaghi, Pierre Webo and Gonzalo 'Chori' Castro. Those three players have scored ten out of 23 goals for their team this season. Could this have an impact on the squad? "No, it happens every single year," skipper Jose Nunes answers.

And the fact is that they have proven several times that they know how to live in this 'a decent offer and anyone is for sale' atmosphere. That is why they should beat Sporting, who managed three decent results in a row without really improving their game that much.

4. Malaga (19th) - Zaragoza (16th): 1.

Two inspirational coaches in charge of relegation-threatened teams face to face. Manuel Pellegrini's Malaga showed a great deal of resilience last week against Valencia (and the linesmen), but the Chilean boss probably needs more time to make the new signings gel. His homework must start at La Rosaleda, where his squad have only won seven points in 20 matches.

Mexican Javier Aguirre has done better and, with three consecutive home wins, Zaragoza are entitled to feel some relief. But this match feels like a final, and in those cases home support does matter.

5. Hercules (12th) - Barcelona (1st): 2.

Pep Guardiola
GettyImagesPep Guardiola has a point to prove in the return leg

Quick tangent: it looks as though we are en route to watch at least two Barcelona vs Real Madrid encounters at the end of the season (Liga, Copa del Rey final). Imagine that, due to some trick of our destiny, both teams meet in the Champions League knock-out stages as well: we could watch FOUR mega-derbies in less than a month. Some Barca fans have a huge grin on their faces now, I know.

Anyway, you do remember Hercules' huge upset at the Camp Nou, don't you? That result paid the biggest Quiniela prize of the season (over €2 million - close enough to my €10.87), and won't happen again. Pep Guardiola does not forgive, and he does not forget either.

6. Deportivo de La Coruna (13th) - Sevilla (8th): 1.

Sevilla looked like a good pick for this match until their ugly, disappointing and physically exhausting Copa del Rey performance against Real Madrid on Wednesday. They should struggle to recover in time for Depor. With Romaric injured and new signings Ivan Rakitic and Gary Medel not able to start, it sounds like Depor have a great chance to recover the good vibes they lost after their defeat in Zaragoza.

7. Atletico de Madrid (7th) - Athletic de Bilbao (6th): 2.

On paper, a fantastic encounter: both teams enjoy playing each other, they have plenty of talent to entertain and need the points to travel around Europe next season. However, Atletico's current atmosphere spoils it all. The non-stop gossip about players wanting to get rid of coach Quique Flores is now reaching deafening levels. Couple that with the fact that Fernando Llorente can't be contained by any of Atletico's defenders, and it's safe to say we'll see the Calderon filled with white handkerchiefs for long spells of the match on Sunday.

8. Osasuna (17th) - Real Madrid (2nd): X.

And we finally get to this week's Quiniela Buster, courtesy of a tired, uninspired, flat Real Madrid side, arriving at one of the pitches where they are most hated. Osasuna, owners of a decent home record (only one defeat, obviously to Barcelona), desperately need points but can count on the support of the Fatal Distraction Syndrome: between Emmanuel Adebayor, Karim Benzema, Sevilla's goal/non-goal, and Valdano's statements about Mourinho ("If I have to give him some space, I'll do just that"), no one in Madrid remembers they're due at Pamplona on Sunday. It'll cost them points.

9. Espanyol (5th) - Villarreal (3rd): 2.

And yet another mouth-watering match. I know I have no reason to go against Espanyol's run of good form, but this has become a question of personal consistency: their squad was already threadbare and now they have begun to sell key players (Victor Ruiz to Napoli, Didac Vila to Milan). Villarreal, boosted by Giuseppe Rossi's renewed contract, need to make a statement and keep Valencia and Espanyol at a safe distance. Amarillos it is.

10. Racing de Santander (14th) - Valencia (4th): 2.

Fatal Distraction Syndrome also applies here. Racing have spent the last two weeks discussing whether or not the club should be sold to Ahsan Ali Syed, a businessman from India who last season tried to buy Blackburn Rovers. In the meantime, Valencia have made the shrewdest signing of the transfer window in Jonas Goncalves (mark my words), and should have a great scenario to showcase their counter-attacking style at El Sardinero.

PS. Quick reminder: you can follow me on twitter! (@Papamoskis).

Use this easy 'Copy and Paste' summary to write your own Quiniela and share it with us in the 'Comments' section. If you get 10 correct results, your name will be mentioned in the following Quiniela column!

1. Levante (20th) - Getafe (10th): X.
2. Real Sociedad (11th) - Almeria (18th): X.
3. Mallorca (9th) - Sporting de Gijon (15th): 1.
4. Malaga (19th) - Zaragoza (16th): 1.
5. Hercules (12th) - Barcelona (1st): 2.
6. Deportivo de La Coruna (13th) - Sevilla (8th): 1.
7. Atletico de Madrid (7th) - Athletic de Bilbao (6th): 2.
8. Osasuna (17th) - Real Madrid (2nd): X.
9. Espanyol (5th) - Villarreal (3rd): 2.
10. Racing de Santander (14th) - Valencia (4th): 2.

Last week: 9/10 (90%)
Season: 97/180 (54%)