Down to the last match again for Wigan?

Posted by Tony Brown

Matthew Lewis/Getty ImagesAntolin Alcaraz could be critical to Wigan's escape

"Remember that our last game is against Aston Villa at home. It could easily go to the last day of the season." These were the words of Roberto Martinez in a recent interview.

Wigan Athletic are not strangers to the concept of surviving on the last day of the season. They have done it twice before.

Goals from Paul Scharner and David Unsworth helped Wigan keep afloat in 2006-2007, when they won their last game at Sheffield United. The win put them level on points with the Blades, but Wigan prevailed by a margin of just one in goal difference. In 2010-2011 it was Hugo Rodallega's header that gave them a win in their last game at Stoke, although a draw would have sufficed, given the eventual results of other teams at the bottom.

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Is it again going to come down to that last match? Or will it be all over before then?

Monday night's 3-0 defeat for Aston Villa at Old Trafford opens up that possibility. Wigan Athletic - with a match in hand - have 31 points to Villa's 34. Reading and QPR remain anchored at the bottom with 24 points. If either club were to win all of their remaining four games - most unlikely, but not impossible - they could reach 36 points.

The probability is therefore that Reading and QPR will get relegated, together with either Latics or Aston Villa. However, there remains a possibility that one of the clubs currently on 37 points - Sunderland, Stoke and Newcastle - could also go down if their last four matches were to produce no yield. Very unlikely, given the squads at their disposal, but stranger things have happened.

Aston Villa's next game is scheduled for Monday at Sunderland, when they will play knowing the result of Latics' game with Tottenham on Saturday. If Wigan could manage a positive result against Tottenham it would put a lot of psychological pressure on Villa prior to the Sunderland game. Conversely a defeat on Saturday, followed by a win for Villa, would open up a six point gap, which would be hard to surmount.

Martinez has talked about the need for Wigan to win three out of their last five matches, not an easy matter when two of those are against teams in the top five. But not impossible. If Wigan and Villa were to eventually finish level on points, it would get down to goal difference. Latics currently hold the advantage at -23, compared with Villa's -27.

For the moment Wigan are waiting anxiously to get an assessment of the damage done to Antolin Alcaraz's hamstring, which caused him to limp off at West Ham after only 15 minutes. The return of the big Paraguayan after a long-term groin injury has really helped shore up a leaky defence. A prompt return from Alcaraz could make a big difference to Latics' chances of survival.

The pressure is on for all the teams in the relegation zone, but especially so for Wigan Athletic and Aston Villa. It is the time of the season where you are looking for a little luck to go your way. Just one lucky goal or one bad refereeing decision could tip the balance.

Given the horrendous injuries Latics have had this season they are due some luck. It's never too late for a bit of good fortune to come your way.

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