Numbers say Swans must score
After an unexpected triumph over Liverpool in the Capital One Cup, the Swans will try their best to maintain momentum when league leading Chelsea come to town. Boss Michael Laudrup has already alleviated the pressure, shifting the focus to next week's more winnable tilt against Southampton. It seems likely Laudrup will also rest Chico, who is doubtful with a minor thigh injury, rather than risk the centre back in a game the Swans are not expected to win.
Last season's fixtures against the Blues were sparky affairs; an average of five and a half yellows and one red per game, with Chelsea having a man sent off in each. The early season match at Stamford Bridge saw Chelsea coast to a four-one victory, but the late season return fixture at The Liberty saw an acclimatised Swansea concede an unfortunate last minute own goal and settle for a draw.
This season, the Swans are a better side, but so too are Chelsea. The influx of attacking talent over the summer looked on paper to unbalance the Chelsea squad; how many other sides can claim to have three legitimate "number 10's"? However, it is apparently working. Chelsea sit atop the table having only just lost their first game of the season, and have yet to taste defeat away from home, a fact undoubtedly not lost on Laudrup and the Swans.
With one of the Swans starting centre backs out of the side, Chelsea will be looking to improve an already impressive two-goals-per-game scoring rate on the road. However, the Swans demonstrated a lethal touch of their own on Wednesday - their ability to score from quick counter-attacks. Knowing Chelsea will look to attack, and having to play a tight, compressed defensive game, the Swans will find opportunities to counter. If they can use those chances, this game might not be as one-sided as many think.
As Kevin Stott of The Bleacher Report has pointed out, Saturday's match is under-pinned by some fairly curious numbers. The Swans are undefeated this season when they score at least one goal, and yet have always lost when not scoring. It can also be said that the Swans have never won or even scored in the month of November in Premier League matches; of course, with only one November under their belts as a Premier League outfit, that otherwise alarming fact carries little weight beyond trivial interest. Chelsea, as already mentioned, have not yet lost away from home this season.
If Chelsea win on Saturday and the Swans fail to score, then all those statistical curiosities will continue to hold true. And if the Swans can score, the numbers say they might be able to get something out of the game after all.
Prediction: With no Chico and "easier" games to plan for beyond Saturday, nobody will mind very much if the Swans lose, especially Chelsea. There is always the chance for an upset, however, especially with Swansea playing at home and in fine form. Laudrup's men have already exceeded expectations once this week; twice might be too much to ask for, but here's hoping.


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