How will the Premier League season end for Newcastle?

Posted by Marc Duffy

Ian Horrocks/Newcastle United/Getty ImagesAlan Pardew thinks Newcastle are safe from relegation. But are they really?

"To be honest, I think we are done. You have got to get 40 points, of course, but we are now seven points from that with nine games left, and you would expect this team to follow through with the standard it has got now to be able to do that."

Alan Pardew after Newcastle's 2-1 home win over Stoke on March 10th.

But are Newcastle safe? As it stands Newcastle are six points away from Wigan down in 18th. Wigan have a game in hand while Newcastle have a very tough trip to The Etihad on Saturday to play the defending Premier League champions.

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Personally, I think Newcastle are two wins from safety. I've taken a look at the remaining fixtures and predicted the outcomes. I've taken a slightly pessimistic view to see how it panned out if the worst was to happen. I also looked at all remaining Premier League fixtures for all teams to see how the league might look at 18:00 on May 19th.

Manchester City away -- LOSS

Newcastle have never won at the Etihad (P8 W0 D2 L6), are terrible away from home (eight points out of a possible 45 this season), are playing a team who are desperately trying to stay in the race for the title and go into the game with yet another lengthy injury list. I'd be mighty shocked if Newcastle take something from this one.

Fulham at home -- WIN

Newcastle have put in some absolutely diabolical performances at home to Fulham over the years. Fulham have also been slightly improved away from home this season, but I think this one will end with three points for the Magpies.

Sunderland at home -- WIN

I hate these games. Newcastle aren't the only team with injury problems heading towards this one -- Sunderland lost their main goal getter, Steven Fletcher, to an ankle injury on Friday night. Lee Cattermole will miss out for the visitors too although that's an advantage for them as he struggles to keep calm in these games. I think they'll score and I think it'll be Newcastle fan Danny Graham who gets it, but Newcastle will win the game.

West Bromwich Albion away -- LOSS

West Brom have lost four of their 15 home games this season but as mentioned earlier, Newcastle have won only one on the road. Only Chelsea and Manchester City have conceded less at home than Albion. I think West Brom will take this by a single goal.

Liverpool at home -- DRAW

Newcastle have done well out of this fixture over the past couple of seasons but it's never an easy ride. Liverpool have only won four games on their travels but only Norwich have drawn more. I reckon this one will be a good, entertaining draw.

West Ham away -- LOSS

London, the Allardyce factor and Newcastle's away form not to mention a couple of Newcastle old boys Andy Carroll and Kevin Nolan who will be well up for it. Nolan might not make the game due to his broken toe but if he does, it's a knocking bet that he will score. Obviously a result obviously isn't totally unachievable though.

QPR Away -- DRAW

If Newcastle are going to win an away game then this is probably the one. But if QPR still have a chance of survival and Newcastle are safe, then this will be a tougher game. Although QPR have only won two home games and scored 11 goals, they've only lost the same amount that Newcastle have at St James' Park -- six.

Arsenal at home -- DRAW

Arsenal could also come into this game with a lot more to play for than Newcastle. If they're in the hunt for top four they'll take the game to Newcastle. If they're not, it could end up a bit like a preseason friendly. Either way, I think the game will end in a draw.


So where would all of that leave Newcastle? Currently sitting in 13th on 33 points these additional nine points would take them to 42. If things work out along the same lines as my forecast (which I'm sure they won't!), this will give Newcastle an 11th placed finish.

This is how my final Premier League table looks:

Manchester United 93
Manchester City 78
Chelsea 74
Arsenal 69
Tottenham 65
Everton 62
Liverpool 62
West Brom 50
Swansea 45
West Ham 45
Newcastle 42
Southampton 42
Fulham 41
Sunderland 40
Stoke 39
Norwich 39
Aston Villa 36
Wigan 36
QPR 35
Reading 26

All of the above is just a bit of fun and I'm generally terrible with predictions so don't take it too seriously. But it is encouraging when looking at the games Newcastle have to play versus the fixtures of the competitive set.

Then next season -- onwards and upwards!

Twitter : @MarcSDuffy

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