Barcelona vs. AC Milan (Tuesday)
Before the first leg, Barcelona was the heaviest favorite to advance to the quarterfinals, according to SPI (which takes into account first-leg results, a team's offensive and defensive ratings, and site of the game). However, after falling 2-0 in Milan, Barca now is the underdog; SPI gives AC Milan a 64.0 percent chance of advancing. Also according to SPI's match prediction tool, there is a good chance for extra time: Barcelona's chance of scoring two or more goals is 70.2 percent; AC Milan's chance of being shut out is 46.2 percent.
Barcelona had 954 touches in the first leg, more than double that of AC Milan, but both teams had the same number of touches in the attacking penalty area (11). That's the fewest Barca has had in a La Liga or UCL match this season.
Barcelona managed just seven shots in the first leg, tied for its second-fewest in a La Liga or UCL match in the past three seasons. The only match in which Barca had fewer was at Madrid Saturday, when it had five. Only one of those seven shots was on target, its fewest in a La Liga or UCL match in the past three seasons. Lionel Messi had no shots on target for the first time in a La Liga or UCL match this season.
Bayern Munich vs. Arsenal (Wednesday)
Arsenal is a huge underdog after conceding three goals at home to Bayern Munich in the first leg. SPI gives Bayern a 98.9 percent chance of advancing. Arsenal needs a minimum of three goals to advance, but the chances of the Gunners scoring three or more times is 4.0 percent, according to SPI.
In the first leg, all three of Bayern Munich's goals came from crosses (two open play, one corner). Bayern has attempted the most crosses in the competition, 25 more than any other team. One of the crosses leading to a goal came from Philipp Lahm, his fourth assist in the competition. Only Zlatan Ibrahimovic has more with five.
Though Bayern won big, it had only 43.7 percent of the total touches in the first leg, the only Bundesliga or UCL match this season in which it has had fewer than half of the total touches. The previous match that Bayern had less than half of the total touches was Matchday 6 of last season’s Champions League group stage, a 2-0 loss to Man City when Bayern had already clinched the top spot in the group.
Malaga vs. FC Porto (Wednesday)
With a 1-0 win in the first leg, Porto is favored to advance to the quarterfinals. According to SPI, the Portuguese side has a 67.7 percent chance of moving to the next round.
Porto was able to win the first leg by preventing its opponent from getting shots off, something it has done well all tournament. Malaga managed just two shots in the first leg, neither of which was on target, both of which are its fewest in a La Liga or UCL match in the past three seasons. Porto has allowed the fewest shots per game (7.4) of any team in the tournament.
Schalke 04 vs. Galatasaray (Tuesday)
In the first leg, the two sides played to a 1-1 draw, giving Schalke the advantage coming home with the away goal. (SPI gives the German squad a 68.4 percent chance of advancing.)
Schalke's goal was scored by American Jermaine Jones on a fast break, the squad's second such goal in the Champions League this season. Schalke has nine fast-break goals in the Bundesliga this season, the most of any team in the Big 5 European Leagues.
Barcelona vs. AC Milan (Tuesday)