The English Premier League resumes this weekend after an FA Cup break. Manchester United holds a healthy seven-point lead over local rival Manchester City at the top of the table, while the Champions League and relegation spots are a bit tighter. Let’s take a look at these races using ESPN’s Soccer Power Index (SPI), which simulated the remainder of the season 10,000 times.

SPI projects that Manchester United will win the league in 81 percent of the simulations, while City wins 15 percent of the time. Chelsea is the only other team to win in more than 1 percent of the simulations (2.8 percent). The most influential match in the title race is of course the second Manchester derby, which is at Old Trafford in April. If City gets the away win, its title chances improve to just under 30 percent, while a loss would drop them to 8 percent.

Manchester United has nine remaining home matches and is favored to win all of them, taking an average of 2.1 points per match, according to SPI. Of United’s eight remaining away matches, the Red Devils are favored to win six of them; they are slight underdogs at Arsenal and Tottenham. SPI expects United to take an average of 1.7 points per away match, the highest total in the league. At this pace, United would finish with 84 points; if that occurs, City can afford to drop only 12 points in 17 matches the rest of the way.

SPI forecasts the Manchester clubs as locks for Champions League places next season, each finishing in the top four in over 98 percent of the simulations. Chelsea is in fourth place, two points behind Tottenham in the table, thanks largely to QPR’s upset win over the Blues last week. But SPI still sees Chelsea as an 85 percent favorite to finish in the top four. Tottenham and Arsenal have nearly identical chances to finish in the top four, at 49 and 47 percent, respectively. Everton (17 percent) is the only other side with more than a 2 percent chance.

At the bottom of the table, Queens Park Rangers and Reading are heavy favorites to go down to the Championship next season, with five points separating those two sides from safety. Because of a poor offensive and defensive rating, QPR is relegated in over 85 percent of simulations, while Reading is sent down nearly two-thirds of the time. The race to avoid the third and final spot comes down to three teams, according to SPI. Southampton and Aston Villa are each relegated in 45 percent of the simulations, while Wigan has a slight edge, going down 37 percent of the time. Newcastle (7 percent) and Sunderland (6 percent) are outside candidates to go down.

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