English clubs draw UCL trouble
The UEFA Champions League draw for the round of 16 was held Thursday morning in Switzerland, with a pair of mammoth matchups highlighting the pairings. Here are notes and Soccer Power Index simulations for the round of 16, which begins Feb. 12.
Manchester United drew its worst possible opponent in Real Madrid, which finished runner-up behind group winner Borussia Dortmund. This is the fifth series between the powerhouse clubs, which have combined for 12 European Cup titles. Real Madrid advanced in three of the previous four meetings, and an average of 7.8 goals have been scored in each series. SPI rates Real Madrid a 76.0 percent favorite to advance.
Seven-time champion AC Milan will again meet four-time winner Barcelona, which eliminated the Italian club in last season’s quarterfinals. Barcelona is unbeaten in their last seven meetings, and Lionel Messi scored three goals in four games against Milan last season. This is the only pairing between teams that have met in a Champions League final, as Milan beat Barcelona 4-0 in 1994. Barcelona is the heaviest favorite in the entire round, with 79.0 percent odds to advance according to SPI.
The other matchup of teams from Europe’s top four leagues pits Arsenal against Bayern Munich. Arsenal is making its 10th consecutive knockout-round appearance, the second-longest active streak behind Real Madrid’s 16, but the Gunners have never won a European Cup title. Bayern won their only previous knockout meeting in the 2005 round of 16, and the German club is a 76.8 percent favorite to reach the quarterfinals.
With both English clubs underdogs in this round, there is a 58 percent chance that neither reaches the quarterfinals. It could be the first time since 1995-96 that no English teams make the final eight.
In the knockout round for the first time in five years, Celtic drew Italian champion Juventus, which beat the Scottish club twice in the 2001-02 group stage. Juventus has two European Cup titles, most recently in 1995-96, and Celtic won the European Cup back in 1966-67. SPI gives Juventus a 69.3 percent chance to advance.
The other four pairings all feature first-time matchups. Schalke drew its best possible opponent in Galatasaray, making the German team a 63.4 percent favorite. Borussia Dortmund has 69.6 percent odds to get by Shakhtar Donetsk. Powered by Zlatan Ibrahimovic’s competition-leading five assists, Paris Saint-Germain is a 61.4 percent favorite over Valencia. Malaga-Porto is the tightest matchup, with Oguchi Onyewu’s Spanish team holding a narrow 55.5 percent edge.
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