Champions League group stage permutations

Posted by Dale Johnson

Group E
Remaining fixtures: Schalke vs. Basel, Chelsea vs. Steaua

Has any team qualified yet? Yes, Chelsea may have lost at Basel but they are through due to the second- and third-place teams, Schalke and Basel, meeting on the final day. They cannot both overtake Chelsea.

Who can still qualify? It's a straight shootout between Schalke and Basel in Germany. Basel need to avoid defeat to qualify, while Schalke must win. Steaua Bucharest are out.

Group F
Remaining fixtures: Napoli vs. Arsenal, Marseille vs. Dortmund

Has any team qualified yet? No, though Marseille have been eliminated from Europe altogether with zero points.

Who can still qualify? It's exceptionally close and the group is still on track for an amazing three-way 12-point tie at the top. Arsenal and Dortmund are very strong favourites to go through though. Arsenal only need to avoid defeat to Napoli by three or more goals to guarantee their place, while Napoli will go through if they better Dortmund's result. However, if both Napoli and Dortmund win then we have three teams on 12 points and a mini-league is created just involving the results of those teams. In that scenario Dortmund are guaranteed to qualify, as their mini-league goal difference is +1 and cannot change; Arsenal have +2 and Napoli -3. Because of this Napoli can only qualify from the mini-league if they beat Arsenal by three goals, which would dump the Gunners into the Europa League and also give the Serie A side top spot. Also for top spot in the mini-league, Arsenal can only stop Dortmund winning the group if they lose to Napoli by a one-goal scoreline of 4-3 or higher. If Arsenal lose 3-2 to Napoli, and Dortmund win, then Dortmund will top the group on direct head to head between themselves and the Gunners.

Group G
Remaining fixtures: Austria Vienna vs. Zenit, Atletico vs. Porto

Has any team qualified yet? Atletico Madrid qualified on Match Day 4.

Who can still qualify? Zenit lead Porto by a point, and as they hold the better head-to-head record between the sides it means Porto have to win at Atletico and hope Zenit fail to beat Austria Vienna. A win for Zenit in Vienna would guarantee their place. Vienna have been eliminated from Europe.

Group H
Remaining fixtures: Barca vs. Celtic, Milan vs. Ajax

Has any team qualified yet? Barcelona are through while Cetic are out of Europe.

Who can still qualify? It's a straight shootout at the San Siro as Milan host Ajax. Milan only need a draw to finish second, Ajax have to win. Milan can still top the group if they win and Barcelona lose at home to Celtic.


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